Disruptives’ impact analysis

Impactful disruptive developments (often also called ‘black swans’) play a difficult, but central role of long-term strategic planning. Executives face the challenges of identifying them, evaluating their potential impact, and developing reaction plans. In doing so, they have to take into account both the immediate influence of the disruptive itself, but also the interactions that unfold between all market actors reacting to each other.

However, identifying disruptives is not enough. The dynamics unfolding strongly depend on key players’ respective actions and reactions to cope and adjust to events. With our approach, we assess the potential impact based on a thorough understanding of industries’ key players reactions that we derive from our modelling effort. In addition to this assessment, we produce a first level action plan of “what to do, if…”.

Black Swan Disruptives Impact

Selected cases: Disruptives’ impact analysis

Strengthen own market position despite facing multiple disruptives

In a highly competitive chemical market, our client was an established global supplier who faced multiple potential disruptive elements: potentially upcoming political regulations in the world’s biggest market segment; the possible entry of two new suppliers; rumors about shut-downs of some unprofitable smaller suppliers; and technological innovations that would create various new product applications and change customer demands drastically. With our analyses, we helped our client to identify the most impactful of those disruptives, to understand their interplays, and to develop a suitable action plan how deal with them best.

Disruptive impact analysis – New digital ways in financial services

Digital innovations create numerous changes for financial service provider, but also fundamental challenges to their former business model. Together with our client – a large supplier of financial services – we found the best way of dealing with the new opportunities and of setting up his product portfolio in the light of the new technologies. In doing so, we took various interactions between stakeholders of multiple kinds such as competitors, technology suppliers, and customers into account.