Disruptives impact analysis
Impactful disruptive developments (often also called ‘black swans’) play a difficult, but central role of long-term strategic planning. Executives face the challenges of identifying them, evaluating their potential impact, and developing reaction plans. In doing so, they have to take into account both the immediate influence of the disruptive, but also the interactions that unfold by all market actors reacting to the disruptive likewise.
However, identifying disruptives is not enough. The dynamics unfolding strongly depend on key players’ respective actions and reactions to cope and adjust to events. With our approach, we assess the potential impact based on a thorough understanding of industries’ key players reactions that we derive from our modelling effort. In addition to this assessment, we produce a first level action plan of “what to do, if…”.
Selected cases: Disruptives impact analysis
Strengthen own market position despite facing multiple disruptives
In a highly competitive chemical market, our client was an established global supplier who faced multiple potential disruptive elements: potentially upcoming political regulations in the world’s biggest market segment; the possible entry of two new suppliers; rumors about shut-downs of some unprofitable smaller suppliers; and technological innovations that would create various new product applications and change customer demands drastically. With our analyses, we helped our client to identify the most impactful of those disruptives, to understand their interplays, and to develop a suitable action plan how deal with them best.